Are vape sales declining? A closer look at a complex market

September 22, 2025 •

3 min read

While some reports of local declines exist, the overall question of are vape sales declining is complex and nuanced. National data shows that the e-cigarette market is undergoing significant shifts, with robust growth in some areas even as other segments face downturns due to regulations and changing consumer behavior.

Quick Summary

The vape market is not experiencing a universal decline, but rather a complex transformation driven by regulations, illicit sales, and a massive shift toward disposable products. Youth use is down, yet adult use and total nicotine consumption figures tell a different story.

Key Points

Conflicting Trends: Sales are not universally declining; certain areas show drops, while others, particularly disposables, see strong growth.
Shift to Disposables: The market has seen a major shift to single-use disposable devices, which offer higher nicotine levels and come in a wider variety of flavors.
Metric Matters: Measuring sales in units can be misleading. Total nicotine content and dollar sales often show significant increases.
Impact of Regulation: Flavor bans and increased enforcement have successfully reduced sales in certain regions but also contributed to a thriving illicit market.
Role of Illicit Sales: A large, unregulated black market for vapes accounts for a substantial portion of sales and evades official tracking.
Youth Usage Decline: Public health campaigns and regulatory pressure have contributed to a decrease in e-cigarette use among middle and high school students.

The Nuance Behind the Numbers: Why 'Declining' is an Oversimplification

Official figures and market analysis paint a contradictory picture regarding the performance of the vape industry, making a simple "yes" or "no" answer impossible. Understanding the complete market dynamic requires looking beyond simple sales numbers and considering product types, consumer demographics, regulations, and enforcement.

The Tale of Two Metrics: Units vs. Nicotine Content

Analyzing the vape market requires distinguishing between sales measured in units and the total amount of nicotine or dollar value sold. While unit sales might seem stagnant or falling, the total milligrams of nicotine sold can increase significantly. This is because of the rise of larger disposable devices containing more e-liquid and higher nicotine concentrations per unit.

A 2025 study noted a significant rise in total monthly milligrams of nicotine sold between February 2020 and June 2024, growing much faster than standardized unit sales.
By June 2024, the average disposable device held substantially more e-liquid than prefilled cartridges. This leads to fewer items sold overall but increased total nicotine consumed and revenue.

The Dominance of Disposable Devices

Disposable e-cigarettes are a key driver of market growth. Consumers favor disposables for their convenience, flavor variety, and lower initial cost.

The Role of Regulations and Enforcement

Regulations impact sales data, with a flavor ban in California decreasing e-cigarette sales in the state. Despite federal efforts against illegal flavored products, unauthorized products remain widely available and contribute significantly to overall vape sales.

Conflicting Trends in the Illegal vs. Legal Market

A large black market for unauthorized disposable vapes skews conventional retail sales tracking. Data from major retail channels often show declines but exclude sales from other channels, representing a substantial market share. Reports indicate that illegal, unauthorized flavored disposable vapes continue to generate billions in sales and contribute to market growth.

Comparison of Market Segments


Feature	Legal/Regulated Market	Illicit/Untracked Market
Products	Predominantly tobacco and menthol-flavored cartridges, following FDA authorizations.	A vast range of youth-appealing flavors (fruit, candy), often in disposable formats.
Sales Trends	Declines observed in tracked channels, influenced by flavor bans and stricter regulations.	Continued, robust growth, largely unchecked by current enforcement efforts.
Regulations	Strict rules on flavor, marketing, and product manufacturing; age verification required.	Largely unregulated, with many products evading safety and marketing standards.
Consumer Access	Mainly through convenience stores and other retailers following legal guidelines.	Found online, in specialty shops, and via informal networks, often without strict age verification.
Health Impact	Less regulated products contain unlisted or potentially harmful ingredients.	Higher nicotine content and potential for unknown toxic chemicals in unregulated products.

The Impact of Public Health Campaigns

Public health initiatives have been effective in reducing youth vaping.

Conclusion: The Market is Shifting, Not Collapsing

While some data points suggest declines in specific areas, the overall market is dynamic. Growth is driven by high-nicotine disposable devices and a significant, expanding illicit market that avoids regulation. The future of vape sales depends on enforcement, competition between legal and illegal products, and changing consumer preferences.

For more data on tobacco and e-cigarette sales and health trends, visit official sources like the {Link: CDC Foundation https://www.cdcfoundation.org/}.

Frequently Asked Questions

Overall vape sales figures in the US are complex. While some tracked retail channels and product types have shown declines, the market is primarily characterized by a massive shift to higher-nicotine disposable devices and a growing, difficult-to-track illicit market, which continue to drive sales.

The conflicting reports stem from differences in how sales are measured. Some reports track standard units sold, which may decrease as consumers switch to larger, longer-lasting disposables. Other data, tracking total nicotine content or dollar sales, often show significant increases.

Recent market growth is largely fueled by the immense popularity of flavored disposable vapes. These products, often sold in both legal and illicit channels, are convenient and appeal to a broad consumer base.

Regulations like flavor bans in states such as California have successfully reduced sales of flavored products in tracked retail outlets. However, these policies can also push consumers toward the unregulated, illicit market.

Yes, data from the 2024 National Youth Tobacco Survey (NYTS) indicates a significant decrease in current e-cigarette use among US middle and high school students.

Unit sales count each individual device sold. Total nicotine sales measure the overall milligrams of nicotine delivered to consumers. With the rise of large-capacity disposables, fewer units can be sold while the total volume of nicotine sales dramatically increases.

Yes, ongoing federal and local enforcement actions will continue to shape the market. The effectiveness of these efforts will depend on continuous monitoring and adaptation.